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Guest Rita

I don't think releasing Kingdom of Heaven during the Christmas season is likely since Alexander is coming out on Nov 5, 2004, and according to Hollywood, there can't be two sandal epics coming out at the same time. :rolleyes:

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If Ridley wanted an entire year to edit and perfect his movie, it's very doubtful it would be moved up, even if I think that might be a good idea. If anything I can see it being pushed further out from May. So far the exhibitor site from Fox still has it in May (not June). But release dates are very tentative but I think Mission Impossible 3 knows it has the upper hand and will not budge off the date, so we will have to see what the Studio decides if anything about the date.

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I'm sure that in the two - three months prior to KOH's release, there will be a spate of documentaries on television, plus newspaper and magazine articles about the Crusades, as part of the PR campaign, to increase public awareness of the era and what it was all about.

We've had some pretty similar things lately about Troy, and ancient Greece in general, which no doubt helped build audiences for both Troy and upcoming films like Alexander.

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I think it would be ideal if KOH was released in January so people will be sick enough of spending time with their families for the holidays and will get out of the house to see it (:lol:) and it's right before the Oscars.

To be eligible for the Oscars, a film has to play in at least New York and Los Angeles for at least a week during the previous calendar year. I.E. To be eligible for the 2005 Oscars, KOH would have to play for at least a week in those two cities in 2004. That's why in the past so many films have opened in limited release in December, then expanded to more screens during January of the following year.

Come to think of it, pretty much nothing really noteworthy ever comes out in the spring. :wink:

That has been the case, traditionally, and the original Matrix movie took full advantage of that. It opened in April 1999 (it was my niece's first movie; she was 2 weeks old :)), and enjoyed incredible box office because it pretty much had no competition. (And it was good, but let's not get into the sequels now. :wink:) There's generally one film that opens in the spring that does really well; the rest of the films are just dumped by the studios who don't want to open them in the highly competitive summer and holiday seasons.

Kira

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Guest waitingforwake

I think our current situation in regards to Christian/Muslim relations will be KoH's biggest strength. Much like with the Passion of Christ, the content of the story will be highly controversial, especially if Ridley claims that it is historically accurate. I just pray it doesn't come out the same weekend as Star Wars Episode 3. Of course if I had to choose between Hayden and Orlando, that would be a no-brainer. :whistle:

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I just pray it doesn't come out the same weekend as Star Wars Episode 3. Of course if I had to choose between Hayden and Orlando, that would be a no-brainer. :whistle:

Hey, I'm sure they'll be in theaters for plenty long enough to see both :wink: .

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I think it would be ideal if KOH was released in January so people will be sick enough of spending time with their families for the holidays and will get out of the house to see it (:lol:) and it's right before the Oscars.

To be eligible for the Oscars, a film has to play in at least New York and Los Angeles for at least a week during the previous calendar year. I.E. To be eligible for the 2005 Oscars, KOH would have to play for at least a week in those two cities in 2004. That's why in the past so many films have opened in limited release in December, then expanded to more screens during January of the following year.

Come to think of it, pretty much nothing really noteworthy ever comes out in the spring. :wink:

That has been the case, traditionally, and the original Matrix movie took full advantage of that. It opened in April 1999 (it was my niece's first movie; she was 2 weeks old :)), and enjoyed incredible box office because it pretty much had no competition. (And it was good, but let's not get into the sequels now. :wink:) There's generally one film that opens in the spring that does really well; the rest of the films are just dumped by the studios who don't want to open them in the highly competitive summer and holiday seasons.

Kira

Ooh I didn't know that about the Oscars. Thanks for the info!

And, yeah, that's why I thought a spring release would be good.

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I just pray it doesn't come out the same weekend as Star Wars Episode 3. Of course if I had to choose between Hayden and Orlando, that would be a no-brainer. :whistle:

This would be a really hard decision for me. And not just because of Hayden. I have seen the first two Star Wars on opening day, so I plan on continuing this with Episode 3 next May. And if they opened the same day, I'd have to take the whole day off and sit in the theater ALL DAY!!!! Not that that would be a BAD thing, but I think I'd like to see KOH in June instead, and I could watch both movies a few times!!!

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Guest FireElemental
Just some musings on the KOH release date. The May date, is roughly the same time of year as Gladiator, now that film was succesful precisely because it was up against the whizz bang summer blockbusters. I also think that is why Troy got a May release, as a film aimed at a more serious and mature audience is more likely to stand out at the multiplexes against an array of more teen and action movies. Whereas, the 'Oscar season' of November through to mid-January is awash with worthy mature audience films, with a few Holiday season family films thrown in. (one exception in the last three years, LOTR).

As for Star Wars episode three, the last two prequels did far better in the USA domestic market, than they did globally. Did you know that in the all time non-adjusted, global (including the USA) chart, POTC is one place higher than AOTC! AOTC faired relatively badly outside the USA, and parts of its target audience, around my son's age have no interest in episode three (I live in the UK). Don't forget than in Box Office terms, big historical epics usually fair better outside of the USA, than they do inside the USA.

I do think that the date of release of KOH is immaterial as far as awards are concerned, because being a Ridley Scott film it will automatically be on the awards radar. It may also illustrate Mr Scott's confidence in KOH.

Diane

I think I will have to completely agree with Diane here. And the fact being that it is a fresh movie, even if it has a rating of 'R' tagged to it, I seriously doubt that's going to hinder much with the teen viewers due mainly to what it's about. I know pleantly of adults who are not Orlando fans who have been interested in KOH. Who also have kids who are Orlando fans and would be willing to see it with thier parents (probably won't sit together though! :lol:). But as always things do change, and we'll just have to wait and see. But do remember that it is opening weekend that REALLY counts when it comes to how well a movie does.in the eyes of Hollywood at least. Troy did very well it's opening weekend and even though Shrek and Harry Potter dragged it screaming from the number one spot, people are still noting how well it did opening weekend.

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Guest FireElemental
I'm sure that in the two - three months prior to KOH's release, there will be a spate of documentaries on television, plus newspaper and magazine articles about the Crusades, as part of the PR campaign, to increase public awareness of the era and what it was all about.

We've had some pretty similar things lately about Troy, and ancient Greece in general, which no doubt helped build audiences for both Troy and upcoming films like Alexander.

The USA Network had the movie 'Helen of Troy' running a lot in May of 2003! And there are new candy bars coming out of the Willy Wonka Chocolate Factory, and the movie "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" hasn't even began filming yet!

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FireElemental, I am glad that you get it too. KOH is not really a family or teenie film, as such the release date is probably insignificant, unless it is up against another big scale adult film or historical epic. Not only is Alexander in the works, but Vin Diesel is doing a Hannibal movie, and a Caesar movie is also in the pipeline, both have tentative 2005 release dates, I think there may be a few more as well. So KOH is probably best off as the standout mature audience film at the multiplexes.

As for so many sequels being released in May/June next year. Well, it was mooted in the original announcements for KOH and will undoubtly follow in the advertising, that KOH is the 'follow-up' historical epic from the director of Gladiator, again that will get backsides in theatres, and kind of makes KOH a 'sequel' of sorts.

As for the 3rd Star Wars prequel. Like AOTC it will not do mega-box office outside the USA. Check out Box Office Mojo, AOTC is 'only' the 19th biggest grosser of all time globally, Pirates is one place above :shiny: Although AOTC is in the top 5 domestic grossers (USA), good, but for a Star Wars film, not great. Post-LOTR, the Star Wars publicity engine for episode 3 has gone into overdrive compared to the first 2 prequels, I get the sense that Lucas's people are concerned about box office. The AOTC DVD didn't do that well this side of the pond (UK), which as we have high numbers of dvd owners, is a good indicator about how well sequels will do, Spiderman didn't do that well on DVD too. As my son now almost 16 said, I have never felt so angry as when he left the cinema after AOTC, he actually felt betrayed! and he definitley won't being seeing Episode 3 at the cinema. I am not 'dissing' Star Wars fans, just trying to illustrate that these films are not really seen as a major box office drawer, or threat outside the USA, anymore.

KOH is an international film with an international market and hopefully a global release date ala LOTR, so the US summer movie season is not as relevant in box office terms, and in critical terms being up against the summer fluff could turn KOH into a major talking point bearing in mind its subject matter. On that note, I do think the big thing that could affect KOH, is if world events go against it and audiences don't feel they want to participate in its subject matter, a balanced look at the Crusades.

Diane

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Just some musings on the KOH release date.  The May date, is roughly the same time of year as Gladiator, now that film was succesful precisely because it was up against the whizz bang summer blockbusters.  I also think that is why Troy got a May release, as a film aimed at a more serious and mature audience is more likely to stand out at the multiplexes against an array of more teen and action movies. 

Diane

I think I will have to completely agree with Diane here. And the fact being that it is a fresh movie, even if it has a rating of 'R' tagged to it, I seriously doubt that's going to hinder much with the teen viewers due mainly to what it's about. I know pleantly of adults who are not Orlando fans who have been interested in KOH. Who also have kids who are Orlando fans and would be willing to see it with thier parents (probably won't sit together though! :lol:). But as always things do change, and we'll just have to wait and see. But do remember that it is opening weekend that REALLY counts when it comes to how well a movie does..in the eyes of Hollywood at least. Troy did very well it's opening weekend and even though Shrek and Harry Potter dragged it screaming from the number one spot, people are still noting how well it did opening weekend.

Let's have some fun with some stats:

Gladiator did a $34M opening, WW was $457M total, international at $264 and domestic was $187M. Released May 6, 2000.

Troy, released May 14, 2004, did a $46M opening, WW is at $419M, international at $293M and domestic currently is at $126M. Troy met expectations for opening barely. They spinned it well but it should have opened over $50M and so there really is some disappointment there from the studios/exhibitors no matter how much I can defend it's opening.

Average ticket prices have gone up $0.75 since 2000 so Troy is performing decently except it is under expectations in the US. The expectations were around $150M to $175M.

Matrix was first to buck traditional starts in 1999 opening early in March. When Ridley Scott opened Gladiator that early in May it raised a few eyebrows in 2000. It's competition for the next three weeks was: I Dreamed of Africa, Center Stage, Dinosaur, Road Trip, Shanghia Noon. No real competition until the 24th with Mission Impossible 2 opening. It had almost the entire month to itself.

Forge ahead to 2004 where opening earlier in May is now a staple. Troy opened a week after Van Helsing and against Breakin All The Rules. Shrek 2 opened the Wednesday afterward and will probably be the top grossing movie of the year. Day After Tomorrow was a week after that.

Now at 2005 you have MI3 and KOH on May 6th, week after Vin Diesel in XXX2, and a week after that Star Wars 3.

Teenagers love them or hate them make up a significant amount of the repeat business of a movie; example #1 Titanic. Young teen women propelled that movie into box office nirvana. It's the repeat business that can keep box office going.

However, one of the second largest groups is young males, which make up a lot of those teenagers numbers as well. 17 to 25. Boy do they go to movies. The male demographic is not to be toyed with (I've known guys and still know them that will watch a movie 4 times in one three day weekend period). KOH is IMO in a male demographic death slot currently.

Opening box office is important and is trumpted, however what is telling are the second weekend percentage drops and to see if WOM or "leggs" is there. That makes the box office stay in there for the long run. Those are watched very closely by the studios. You don't get much trumpeting if it does well, but let it drop over 60% second weekend and look for the bad press to start rolling.

I'm more than a little concerned about KOH's current release date. Now don't get me wrong, I think KOH will open well to moderate. That's what and good marketing of a movie is supposed to do. However, I don't think it will do as well if it is on the exact same date as MI3, nor will it stay healthy with SW3 hot on it's heels among others. Young male moviegoers really go to movies weekend after weekend. I also get to know the regulars at the theatre. They come every few days and 98% of them are male (that's over 4 theatres and 8 years of experience). They are a large part of the $'s flowing. That much out they want to see that close together and you have a log jam up front and not much thru the rest of the summer. Even over 4 short years times have changed and your chance of making it box office wise are even slimmer and more cut throat.

Of course, this all boils down to how they make the film. Is it going to be a gritty R like Gladiator, or very lite R like Troy which didn't appeal well and comments I heard was it was watered down to much or will they go for PG-13? And a little thing like is it any good and will it get good buzz. All makes a difference.

Of course if anyone could predict anything they would be rolling in money and enshrined in Hollywood. Lot's of factors go into it.

Currently, Cruise is top dog with a money making series of films and a huge track record in his favor. He doesn't have to budge off the date. Vin Diesel is iffy right now and is on shakey ground but I don't think they would budge off the date if KOH moved down a week. SW3 hate it or not it's the last one out and has a rabid and huge fan base. May not make $450M but it'll come close no matter what.

It'll be interesting to watch and see what they do.

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Movieimp. I :notworthy: to your statistics. However, I was speaking from an international point of view with regards to KOH, don't forget that New Line were considered a bit barking for releasing FOTR as a christmas rather than a summer film! (boy did that pay off).

Audience demographics vary, read an interesting article about this last year. In the UK, because of our lower legal drinking age (18 years old), and generally higher age for driving on public roads (18 also) the 18 plus, or young adult audience is smaller than that for the USA, as they tend to go to nightclubs and bars instead of the cinema. Don't know whether you have noticed, but films aimed specifically at older teens, rom/coms etc, tend not to do so well in the UK and some are even straight to video. The big audiences in the UK tend to be families or older 25 plus adults, hence bigger epic films such as Troy, Gladiator and probably KOH do relatively better box office than in the USA. I belive the UK cinema demographic applies to most of Europe as well. I think the actually opening date of KOH will depend on the timetabling of the studios other releases and more importantly whether they see KOH as a film, that needs to break USA box office before it hits international markets, or as a worldwide box office hit.

A recent article at Box Office Mojo, pointed to the fact that R rated films tend to produce steady box office returns, or 'legs'. This is what happened with Gladiator, because adult audiences do not rush out to see a film the week it opens, they go in the second or third week.

I know every one cites the multiple viewing for Titanic, as the model for success, as it were. But back in the late 1990s, fewer people had home cinema, and succesful films could take 2 years before they became available for home purchase. Now it takes a couple of months for a film to come out on DVD, hence the number of repeat viewings of Titanic, I honestly think that if Titanic came out 6 years later, it would have had far fewer repeat viewings. Ok LOTR is the recent exception that proves the rule.

To be honest, an earlier release date, say April, or March would probably work in KOH's favour. However, the international growth of the multiplex seems to have encouraged Hollywood to increase its output in the last 5 years. (Believe you me, until 5 years ago, outside of most major UK cities, we only had a 3 screen cinema if we were lucky!) This crowded release schedule means that it will be very difficult for KOH to find a safe date, where it would be guaranteed to triumph at the box office.

Diane

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Guest FireElemental

In the end, even with all the stats, which were fantastic by the way, I'm just glad the movie is opening!!! Unlike Ned Kelly, which I am still waiting to see, at least I'll be able to put MY butt in a seat and see Kingdom. And we all know that Orlando will do well in the future, even if opening weekend is just barely making it. What I meant about opening weeking was more geared to actors then numbers I guess. From what I understand is that if an actor's movie does well in it's opening weekend it basicly says they are worth hiring again in the future because they did bring in those numbers. Does that make sense? I hope so.anyway, here's to Orlando and Kingdom of Heaven! :beer:

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Guest JayDK

I think part of the issue is perception. No matter how well a movie does outside the U.S., if it doesn't meet expectation in the U.S., it's perceived to be something of a failure in Hollywood. That's the situation Troy is facing now. It's made over $418 total worldwide, but because it's not going to make $150-175 in the U.S. market, there's the perception in Hollywood that it's something of a disappointment; and since the decisions on what studio movies are made, is made in Hollywood, well, their perception rules.

I think Kingdom of Heaven will be facing a similar situation in May 2005. No matter how gritty and R-rated and adult it may be, if it's opening on the first weekend of the summer season, it's going to be perceived to be a summer blockbuster movie, and graded accordingly in Hollywood perception. Similarly, no matter how much money it makes worldwide, if it doesn't open big in the U.S., and make a big U.S. box office according to summer blockbuster standards or at least meet expectations -- Hollywood will see it as a failure.

I actually think it would be better for KOH to open in June 2005, if it must be released in the summer. The movies in May are so big -- both MI3 and SW not only appeal to a wider audience than KOH, but they also target exactly the audience KOH targets within that wider audience sweep. I'd say let the big dogs bark in May, and wait for something of a more fallow period in June -- similar to what The Terminal is doing this June. Let the audience get their ya-yas out with MI3 and SW and wait for them to be ready for something more intelligent and yes, adult.

Also, I really hope Ridley Scott goes for the gritty, hard-hitting R -- if the movie is differentiated in marketing as an adult, intelligent film, then let it be an adult film. Troy had the worst of both worlds with its R-lite rating -- it couldn't get the kids/young teens that might have made the difference in box-office numbers, but the movie wasn't really hard-hitting enough to be "worth" the R IMO. Critical acclaim might really make the difference for KOH, and I hope Scott doesn't let his film be "softened" in an attempt to compete with movies like MI3 and SW (when it really can't compete for the built-in audience for both movies, honestly).

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Guest cassie

I have also been concerned about the release date. On Yahoo! movies they have all the movies to be released in 2005.I tried to post them all but it would take up 2 whole pages so here is the link:

http://movies.yahoo.com/upcoming/bydate/

From what I can see the best date to release it would be April or August possibly even October of 2005.

Vanessa

P.S October seems so long though

P.S.S Hi, :wave: i'm new but this is something that really interest me

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Sweet! Now if we can just get official confirmation, I have a certain page awaiting deployment on Sid City. :whistle:

Kira

Kira, Variety.com put Kingdom of Heaven officially in post-production on June 14th.

Thanks. I posted the page last week, once I knew Sid was home and I had received semi-approval from FOX (I can't post any copyrighted information but they can't object to non-copyrighted information).

This discussion of Hollywood economics is fascinating! I love stuff like this! It's cool that the Internet, with its wealth of information, allows us to be armchair box office pundits. I've been interested in all of this stuff - the facts and figures and research that goes into predicting box office - for years, but it's only been in the past 4 or 5 years that the information has been so readily available outside "the biz".

Kira

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Actually, I see the point about Hollywood perception and the domestic film market. However, I am going to (slightly) contradict myself here. Whilst the production companies want to see money via the box office, KOH as a Ridley Scott film has something else written all over it, awards, in fact this movie has huge awards potential. The success of Gladiator was perceived in a different light after it picked up several major Oscars, best Actor, best Picture. Epic films are expected, regardless of director, to feature awards potential in some shape or form. Do you remember the Troy review comments about it not featuring as an award winner? This is unlike traditional summer blockbusters, which are not normally on the awards radar, unless its for special effects etc. So I feel that KOH's success will be measured in awards terms, as well as box office.

As for moving the release date up, to possibly June or July. This could actually harm the European Box office of KOH, as many adults holiday abroad and consequently miss films.

As for XXX2 being direct competition for audience $ with KOH :blink: I find it hard to imagine that anyone who could sit through a XXX film, would actually be the same person who would want to see KOH, (don't mean to offend anyone who is, but :huh: )

Diane

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Guest MDragon

With all the debate about which release date would be best, it makes me glad that I'm not the one making the decision, since basically any date is bound to face problems and criticism.

But I would like it to go for an earlier date. To me it doesn't seem to be in the best spot in May when you put it with movies like MI3 and the third Star Wars. When you have big movies like that, that are part of an "enterprise" they're going to attract a lot of attention. And also guys that are either teenagers or younger adults, like in college, aren't going to want to go see a movie about the Crusades. They'd rather see Tom Cruise blowing things up, or Ewan McGregor and Hayden Christensen blowing things up. There's small hope with the fact that some might be attracted to the gritty battle scenes, I know a few guys that liked that about Troy, but probably not enough to help significantly.

I just don't think that putting KOH in the "summer season" is a good move. Things get so competetive in that category, especially with all the action flicks, that a historical drama seems a little out of place and possibly won't hold up.

I'm sure that KOH will probably still do fairly good, but it might have a more impressive opening if placed at a less competetive time. Also I'm sure that it may falter a bit under the pressure of Hollywood in such a busy time. They'll also be focusing on those action films and will probably not be exactly friendly towards KOH. It will probably be a situation similar to Troy.

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Guest EmilyStrange

I hope Ridley Scott sticks to his usual policy. While some of his movies have very good box office statistics, he's not exactly a blockbuster director. I definitely want a hard R-rating. It won't affect the public that attends to the cinemas in my country but a lower rating certainly may affect the quality of the film (a light R movie like Troy has a 14 yr rating here, and in fact, there are almost no movies with >18 ratings because of violence. Sex is much more censored here).

KOH is a war film, I wouldn't want it to look as a child's game, or this hybrid mess that I saw in Troy :huh: Scott is producer so I hope he'd make feel his power on the final decision. Taking his previous movies as a basis, I don't think he'd concede to soften this movie or moving the release date too far, whatever the commercial reasons are (the reasons have always existed anyway, and the decision from his part have always followed the same line).

I wrote so terribly bad, by the way :huh:

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I wrote so terribly bad, by the way :huh:

Not at all. That was very well written. You got your point across beautifully. :hug:

I am really nervous about KOH opening against all of the "Summer Blockbusters". I don't want Orlando to be judged by a poor opening. Ridley, however, is a brilliant director, and also a very good businessman. He must know what he is doing, so I will have to trust him. I'm still nervous though.

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Despite participating in the box office discussion around KOH, I do think that KOH is more of an awards film. I do think that as long as this film makes a profit, however small, the real point of this film from the backers point of view is the Oscars. Ridley Scott has artistic credibility as a director, rather than massive blockbusters, if 20th Century Fox were after a money-spinner, they would be backing Bruckenheimer (sp?), not Scott. Yes, the major studios do go for Oscar kudos as well as box office. In that light, I am more fearful of the reviews, than the release date, good reviews may be more important for getting bums on seats for this type of film, than release dates, being up against the summer fluff could actually make KOH stand out in critical terms, so fingers crossed. I also hope that there no preview audience screenings for this film, and hopefully being Scott there won't be, the Troy experience has left me doubtful of the validity of this sort of decision. Why would any good director allow a bunch of fanboys to decide the final edit of a film :huh:

Actually, a radical shift in the KOH release date would leave me concerned, as it may indicate a lack of faith in KOH, to do the biz as it were. Unless of course, it was shifted to accommodate one of next summers big sequels POTC2, nows there's a clash ladies :wink:

As you said Cayenne, despite Ridley's creative reputation, he is also a businessman. If he thinks KOH would survive the summer movie season, then I am prepared to go with him on that, afterall the summer box office predictions are often wrong. Take last summers biggest movie POTC, no-one predicted a Bruckenheimer movie based on a Disney ride would triumph over the Matrix sequels, did they :wink: Afterall, sequels may play to big opening weekends, but if reviews and word of mouth are not favourable, people do stay away from theatres.

I also think, with the slew of historical epics coming our way in 2005, and Alexander at the end of this year, a first half of 2005 release date for KOH may serve it better, before cinemagoers boredom with the genre sets in.

As for the artistic compromise over possible ratings certification, if you are paying for a Ridley Scott film, I think it would be safe to say you are going to let him have an R, if that what is required.

Diane

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Guest sweetbaby231

I was also worried about KOH sharing the release date with MI3, but I just found this on OBM.

Kingdom of Heaven release date

posted by Jas, 07/02/04

Paramount Pictures has moved its Tom Cruise tentpole "Mission: Impossible 3" back seven weeks, to June 29. The good news for Fox, though, is that its big-budget Ridley Scott Crusades epic "Kingdom of Heaven," starring Orlando Bloom, now has May 6 ("Mission's" earlier release date) all to itself. DreamWorks had huge success launching Scott's "Gladiator" during the same frame in 2000.

I'm so happy that KOH is getting this date all to itself, so the public can focus on this movie more than having to focus on 2 big movies opening on the same day. It won't have to be completely shadowed my some other huge movie until SW3 comes out 2 weeks later. Squeeeeee!! :shiny:

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Guest Rita

Alright! Best news I've had all week! I'm glad Kingdom of Heaven will have the weekend to itself.

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It'll make a great start to next year's summer movie list. If it is indeed a more award oriented film at the final cut, it should get people comparing other films to it rather than the other way around.

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