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You may see wildly varying projections from different sites. I'll put up that behind the scenes, the projection is around a $26M opening. Hope for better. Meantime, here is a place to track those box office numbers when they start rolling in.

Now to start off, we have the Weekend Warrior from CommingSoon.Net up with his projections for Kingdom of Heaven.

LINK

FOX has been pumping up the marketing campaign to build awareness for the film by featuring it with specials on HBO, MTV and other places. The movie has also been prominently featured in many summer previews in various newspapers and magazines, so it's definitely being seen as the first big summer movie. Being an R-rated film, there aren't as many options as far as merchandising, although someone designed a line of weapons and armor based on the film for those who want to start their own Crusade. (Wonder if we'll see people showing up for screenings dressed like their favorite Crusades character. No, I somehow don't think so.)

Related Comparisons

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Black Hawk Down

1/18/02

3,101

$1.85

$33.63

$10,844

$108.58

Hannibal

2/9/01

3,230

  $58.00

$17,958

$164.97

Gladiator

5/5/00

2,938

  $34.82

$11,852

$186.61

Troy

5/14/04

3,411

  $46.87

$13,739

$133.23

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

7/11/03

3,269

$24.00

$46.63

$14,264

$305.41

The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings

12/21/01

3,359

$27.91

$47.21

$14,055

$304.11

Alexander

11/26/04

2,445

$8.15

$13.69

$5,598

$34.29

King Arthur

7/9/04

3,086

$8.43

$15.19

$4,924

$51.80

Braveheart

5/26/95

2,035

$2.64

$12.91

$6,344

$75.59

Why I Should See It: After Gladiator and even Black Hawk Down, Sir Ridley Scott is the master of the historic war drama and Kingdom of Heaven could finally show all the would-be imitators how it's done. After all, who better to make a movie about knights then someone who has been knighted?

Why Not: Honestly, a movie about the Crusades? How interesting could that possibly be?

Bottom Line: Although the genre has had more than its share of misses in the last year, Sir Ridley Scott's return to historical war films with an all-star cast should be a significant draw for older movie audiences, who haven't had a significant blockbuster type movie in quite some time. Being the first big movie of the summer season also won't hurt.

Projection: $28 to 32 million opening weekend on its way to $95 million

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Guest JayDK

Jeffrey Wells, who has praised both Kingdom of Heaven and Orlando's performance in the film, has a rather depressing column here concerning the tracking for Kingdom of Heaven as of last Friday. I'm not very in the know about that kind of thing, but I'm kind of bummed out. :(

I haven't seen it yet, but this movie appears to be so good; I'm going to be upset if it doesn't find the audience it deserves. And of course, a little concerned for Orlando's future. I just so want his first leading role to be a success. I really hope the box office defies the tracking this weekend and pleasantly surprises everyone with higher numbers than expected. Anyone have any new numbers that change the picture?

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Guest DaveHFX

You know, number crunching a movie is fine. I suppose it gives some people something to do. I had worked for Paramount Pictures for 13 years, and after all is said and done, a movie's TRUE success comes down to ONE thing.W.O.M. This abbreviation is Word Of Mouth reaction. If a movie is good, people will talk about it. We had this small film, which was screened for us about three months before its release. Paramount was not sure what it would do. After the screening, someone turned to me and said, "what do you think it will make at the box office?" I said, 100 millilion. They laughed in my face and said why? I said, look at how people reacted to the film, look at how they are talking about it. Some, if not most, want to see it again. Well, that film was GHOST, and it went on to become the number 1 movie for Paramount that year and an all-time favorite.

Another film, which opened with a so-so boxoffice, compared to the cost of the film was Titanic. The first weekend, people projected a $60 million final take. However, week after week, WOM made this film continue to be a steady gainer, till it became the number 1 boxoffice champ of all times!! So, WOM IS a KEY factor!

The same can be said for BAD word of mouth. Alexander being a perfect choice. The weekend I went, the theatre was crowded. So, critics still did not shy a lot away with their negative reviews. However, as people left, people talked badly about the film.even I, who truly like historical pieces. WOM KILLED this film in two weeks.

Kingdom of Heaven is getting HIGH MARKS from the REAL critics. Time, Hollywood Reporter, Roper & Ebert, etc. This is GREAT! After people see this epic, many will tell there friends about the film, along with the "cool" factor (battles, etc) KOH will score quite well both here and overseas.TRUST ME! :)

Dave

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Guest chloe

I checked another website called Lee's Movie Info and they have great and very detailed information on Box Office's. And KOH made $7.3 million. It made a little less than A Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy opening on Friday lastweek. Usually Saturday makes more money so hopefully KOH can make it up. I really want this movie to do well for Orlando. It's doing great Internationally :) And one more thing, House of Wax made $5 million! So, so far were doing better.

Chloe.

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From Box Office Mojo:

Friday opening estimates from Box Office Mojo:

- Kingdom of Heaven Fox

Box Office: $7,150,000

Screens: 3,216

Per Screen Average: $2,223

Saturday should uptick slightly from this and Sunday go down from this. We are looking right at a $25M opening as predicted. Still on the low side but it looks like it will be number 1 for the weekend.

But, please for all that is holy, go next weekend is well. We don't want the percentage to drop too much next weekend.

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Guest Bog Iris

Looking at MI's statistics above, Braveheart opened slowly, too, and picked up speed later. So did Mel Gibson's Passion of the Christ. Dave HFX is right: WOM is critical. Can't wait to get back to work to tell everyone how terrific this movie is --and in fact, it is. If everyone on this board does the same we can lift these numbers considerably.

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Guest Beibei

From general movie message boards it is clear to see that the movie is attracting attention because of its religious subject matter. This will probably be beneficial because people don't want to feel left out of these kinds of discussions in the workplace etc. I'm surprised the summer hasn't kicked off properly yet. I know Kingdom is meant to be a big summer opener but it isn't opening anywhere near 40 m and that's what really makes a summer smash. Hollywood's going through a rather slumpy time.

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Box Office Mojo hasn't come up with their Weekend Estimates yet, guess it's still too early in the am! :lol:

But Box Office Report is estimating a $22 million weekend for KOH, leaving the other big opener, House of Wax, behind at only $13.5 million.

Good to know that most folks preferred to watch a good story rather than see Paris Hilton getting off'ed!

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Well, I am definitely adding to box office sales.I saw KOH Friday evening, Saturday evening and I'll be going to the matinee today! :)

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Although the numbers aren't as high as we all would have hoped, at least it appears that it will have beat House of Wax by a good margin. It would be nice if it remained at number one next week as well. I know my friend and I will be seeing it again this Friday with some people who didn't get a chance to see it this weekend. I also think the fact that today is Mother's Day here may have lowered this weekend's B.O. numbers, but since I don't know much about the box office and how it works, I could be wrong.

I don't know how accurate Business Wire's international numbers are, but since it supposedly beat Gladiator substantially in different parts of the world, that is definitely a good thing.

No doubt Star Wars will be number one the week it comes out, but KOH could have a chance of doing fairly nicely considering it will be up against the opening of a gigantic movie that week. I know that in my local theater, when a new Star Wars is out, the theater is PACKED more than ever. I remember with the first of the prequels, my group and I got to the theater forty-five minutes early, and it was already sold out for the time we were planning. So we ended up buying tickets to a later showing and saw a different movie that we probably wouldn't have seen otherwise before our showing of Star Wars, as did many other families/groups who didn't feel like heading home and coming back to the theater. The same happened with Attack of the Clones. In this case, I'd figure that the majority of the people interested in seeing Star Wars would be most interested in seeing KOH out of all of the other movies in theaters. House of Wax wouldn't appeal to the adults waiting to see Star Wars, Monster in Law would really only appeal to females, Crash doesn't seem to be the type of movie that would get major interest from the SW crowd, and Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy would be the only other movie recently out in theaters that would have a wider appeal to SW fans. Therefore, like I said, I don't think SW will completely clobber other movies out that week, specifically KOH.

As other posters have mentioned, if KOH's US numbers remain fairly steady, it will end up making a nice amount of money domestically. A huge opening is obviously good for a movie, but that won't matter if its B.O. drops substantially each succeeding week.

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Perception is everything.

Epics generally do better overseas than in the U.S.; Troy certainly did. And there's a Fox press release floating around somewhere (if I can find it, I'll copy it over here) that says that KoH is doing better than Troy did in several important international markets. I would not be at all surprised if KoH makes Fox a nice profit.

BUT.

The U.S. is a disaster, and that's going to cause KoH to be labeled as a flop (and Orlando to be at least partly blamed for it). Remember that Troy was considered a disappointment in the U.S. and Brad Pitt was at least partly blamed for it. KoH is doing worse than Troy did by a substantial margin (Troy's opening weekend box office total in the U.S. was $46 million; KoH's total is now projected at $20 million).

Here's how the box office for KoH is being interpreted, according to a Reuters news story. I wish I could be the bearer of better tidings, but I knew KoH was in trouble from the moment I walked into the 7 PM Friday showing and found only about 20 other people in the theater.

'Kingdom of Heaven' worsens box office slump

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The lucrative summer moviegoing season suffered its worst start in years on Sunday, as the costly Crusades epic "Kingdom of Heaven" crawled into the No. 1 slot at the North American weekend box office with meager ticket sales of just $20 million.

The film, which cost nearly $150 million to produce, stars Orlando Bloom -- "Hollywood's No. 1 pretty boy," according to Rolling Stone magazine -- as a humble French blacksmith who takes on the Arabs during the 12th century.

It was directed by British filmmaker Sir Ridley Scott, who had better luck with such films as "Gladiator" and "Hannibal," and released by 20th Century Fox, a unit of News Corp. .

Industry hopes that "Kingdom" would pull the business out a of a lengthy slump were dashed: the box office has now endured 11 "down" weekends when compared with the year-ago periods. According to tracking firm Exhibitor Relations, this ties the longest losing streak, which ran from July to October in 2000.

"Kingdom" also marks the weakest movie to kick off summer in the eight years since Hollywood decided to move the busy season two weeks earlier to the start of May from the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Opening at No. 2 this weekend was the horror remake "House of Wax," starring ubiquitous hotels heiress Paris Hilton, which earned a modest $12.2 million. The Warner Bros. release cost about $30 million to produce.

Last weekend's champion, "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy," slipped to No. 3 with $9.1 million. The Walt Disney Co. release cost about $50 million to produce.

:cry:

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Not-so-good estimates from "Box Office Prophets" RE: KOH Opening Weekend. (They're judging House of Wax to be "the winner" here because PRODUCTION costs were SO MUCH LESS!) :(:sick:

Another Projection

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Guest scarlet_rose

It´s sad but you all know that the same happened to Blade Runner, which is considered a classic movie nowadays. I don´t think Ridley and his guys are worried about that. He´s been in this situation before and he knows how are the markets in Hollywood. Hope Orlando gets over it. :tomato:

Here in Brazil, the movie is doing great.the theater was crowded and everybody went to see KOH, this I´m sure.

We hope we have more luck next time, girls. To be honest I´m a little bit disappointed, but I´ll never stop loving Orlando, even if he fails in 100 movies more. :rolleyes:

EDITED by the PEFIC for spelling and punctuation.

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Well this is certainly depressing. I hope beyond all hope it stays at number one next week.

However, I read another article, and Fox is allegedly okay with this opening. I find that usually the reps (or whoever may be commenting) are quite honest with their views on B.O. openings (i.e. "We are obviously very disappointed."), and Fox is quite positive:

But Fox was enthusiastic, noting that "Kingdom" has a lengthy running time of nearly two and a half hours, while its "R" rating restricts access to youngsters. The studio said two-thirds of the audience was over 25, not exactly the demographic targeted by Hollywood at this time of the year.

"Twenty (million) is very, very good," said Bruce Snyder, Fox's president of domestic theatrical distribution. "I'm delighted."

The film also grossed about $56 million overseas, after opening in nearly 100 markets, mostly at No. 1, he added.

Opening at No. 2 in North America this weekend was the horror remake "House of Wax," which earned a modest $12.2 million. The Warner Bros. Pictures release was budgeted in the mid-$30 million range.

"I was certainly hoping that we would maybe do a little bit more," said Dan Fellman, president of domestic theatrical distribution at the Time Warner Inc.-owned studio.

ETA - Here's the full article: http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/2005050.1558810700.html

I'm praying that Elizabethtown is amazing. But I'm also going to stay positive about KOH.

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I feel really bad for everyone involved in the movie. Now I know personally that I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, and it hasn't absolutely bombed and been regarded as terrible by any means, but I honestly think people had much much higher expectations of it than it has achieved. I hope Orlando isn't feeling too down - if he has read any of this (though he says he doesn't, but for his first major starring role I'm sure he will) then he just needs to remember that he has definitely proven himself as a leading man to a lot of people, including all of his dedicated fans, and we have all thoroughly enjoyed the movie, even though it has already been something of a critical and financial disappointment. It is still on 42% on rotten tomatoes which I find ridiculous - there is no way it deserves to be that low!

I'm going to go and see it a few more times to try and give it a tiny little bump.

As for Elizabethtown, I think that is going to do really really well both in terms of Word of Mouth and financial, critical and awards recognition. I think it will be this years Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and if it comes anywhere near close to Eternals brilliance, I will be very happy indeed, as will a lot of poeple.

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I think that the studio is satisfied with the box office, if not dancing in the streets. They know that overall attendance in the States has been bad for some time now, and that historical epics are not doing well, either. If Brad Pitt, Jude Law, and Tom Cruise aren't pulling people into the theaters, then it's unrealistic to expect a newcomer like Orlando to do so, either. The good overseas receipts makes it clear that they will make money on this film, so anything they make in the States is basically gravy. Once the studio approved the long running time, and got an R rating for the States, they knew what was coming.

Having a huge box office smash would have certainly cemented Orlando's status as an A-list actor, but the modest box office doesn't spell disaster for him, either.

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Guest sweetbaby231

Here's a similar but more detailed article on the weekend box office:

Yahoo!

"Kingdom" Barely Heavenly

Sunday May 8 3:16 PM ET

Kingdom of Heaven ruled, but not strongly enough to oust the box-office from its current slump.

The Crusader epic debuted with an estimated $20 million, way below the $51.7 million sucked up this time last year by the vampire hunter saga Van Helsing.

House of Wax, yet another horror remake, debuted with $12.2 million in second place, not contributing enough to help overall business which continues in meltdown.

For an eleventh weekend in a row grosses were on the skids, the longest slump since the end of July through October in 2000. The total gross for the top 12 movies was just $76.8 million, a drop of 23.7 percent from this time last year, and 5 percent from last weekend.

Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, which tallies the studios' box-office, says the below expectations debut for Kingdom of Heaven, shouldn't be blamed on its distributor Fox because "the studio did a beautiful marketing job and the movie got pretty good reviews." He reasons the weak opening for Ridley Scott's expensive, philosophical religious wars adventure has more to do with the marketplace being depressed. "It's just laying there," Dergarabedian says, hoping that when the long-awaited Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith finally opens May 19, there will be a much needed upturn in ticket sales.

Kingdom of Heaven, which reportedly cost around $150 million to produce, stars Orlando Bloom as a glamorous battler in the 12th Century Christian-Islamic conflict. Swept into 3,216 sites, the R rated spectacular averaged just $6,219, a dismal kick-off to what is now officially summer movie season. (In contrast Universal's Van Helsing, starring another glamorous guy Hugh Jackman, but rated PG-13, averaged $14,475 from 3,575 sites.)

Trying to be upbeat, Bruce Snyder, Fox's domestic distribution chief, noted that the two-thirds of the audience for Kingdom of Heaven, which also stars Jeremy Irons and Liam Neeson, was over 25, which suggests it was attracting a more sophisticated audience and hence might hold on well. Talking to Reuters, Snyder also mentioned the restrictive R rating and the film's lengthy running time, which would have made for fewer showings and hence fewer ticket sales, and mentioned the film had additionally grossed about $56 million overseas.

Back in the USA, House of Wax, Warner Bros. R rated slasher update of the camp '50s horror tale, with a young things cast that includes Elisha Cuthbert, Chad Michael Murphy and the ubiquitous Paris Hilton, was strewn across 3,111 sites where it only averaged $3,928.

Doing better on average in more limited release was Crash, the we-clearly-can't-all-get-along LA based conflict drama. Opening in fourth place, the R rated Lions Gate release - directed by Paul Haggis with a star ensemble that includes Sandra Bullock, Don Cheadle, Matt Dillon, Jennifer Esposito, Brendan Fraser, Thandie Newton and Ryan Phillippe - scored $9.12 million from a $4,882 averaged at just 1,864 sites.

Last week's top movie, the quirky space trip The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, suffered freefall, dropping 57 percent to third place, earning just $9.1 million to bring its two week gross to just $35.1 million.

Final figures are due Monday. The estimated top ten follows:

1. Kingdom of Heaven, $20 million

2. House of Wax, $12.2 million

3. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, $9.12 million

4. Crash, $9.1 million

5. The Interpreter, $7.5 million

6. XXX: State of the Union, $5.4 million

7. The Amityville Horror, $3.15 million

8. Sahara, $3.1 million

9. A Lot Like Love, $3 million

10. Fever Pitch, $2 million

I bolded that part because that's what I really wanted from the release of KOH. I didn't want Orlando to be percieved as someone who would only bring in teenage fans, and it's nice to see that he reached out to the older crowd even if it cost some of the box-office success.

Of course it could also be contributed because of the KOHN. :wink:

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(Fantine)    I think that the studio is satisfied with the box office, if not dancing in the streets. They know that overall attendance in the States has been bad for some time now, and that historical epics are not doing well, either. If Brad Pitt, Jude Law, and Tom Cruise aren't pulling people into the theaters, then it's unrealistic to expect a newcomer like Orlando to do so, either. The good overseas receipts makes it clear that they will make money on this film, so anything they make in the States is basically gravy. Once the studio approved the long running time, and got an R rating for the States, they knew what was coming.

Having a huge box office smash would have certainly cemented Orlando's status as an A-list actor, but the modest box office doesn't spell disaster for him, either.

These are some excellent points to remember. You can see this by looking just at Jude, for example. He had multiple starring vehicles last fall with seemingly 'huge' pressure about opening them big on the first weekend (like Sky Captain. and Alfie, among others). And while those were solid films in their own right and got huge amounts of hype, both performed very underwhelmingly at the BO (and for pure ego boosting, well, well below KOH's opening). But he's still "Jude Law"-big star in basically all eyes (Chris Rock at the Oscars notwithstanding). I think the point I'm wanting to make is that, while this is certainly not as big as it could have been, in the long run, this has done very well to increase the public's awareness of our man. He is a star now, and I think most people know that (and this movie and its crazy press tour have worked fantastically to simply solidify that). That is the big prize from all of this, combined with the staying power I think the film will have. And yes the numbers weren't wild, but everyone knows that this is the kind of film he is capable of doing; he didn't settle for something like, say, House of Wax or insert Ashton Kutcher movie here ( :whistle: ).

But on the personal side, I'm really feeling the twinge of pain like yall are, too. I went to a 10 pm showing last night, and I was also really surprised at the relatively small crowd in the theater. But like the analysts said, it will likely hold on for a good while as it's appealing significantly to the older audiences. (And we ka-Bloomies need to get out and give it some more repeat viewings!!!)

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(And we ka-Bloomies need to get out and give it some more repeat viewings!!!)

Aye, aye! I'm dragging my entire family to the theater next weekend, whether or not they agree.

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Guest MDragon

Well it is kind of a bummer that the numbers aren't too impressive. But that's the business. I do feel bad, but I'm not going to let it really kill me. Ridley's had his share of success and I'm sure he won't take it too hard. And Orlando, I don't really see him being too upset about the box office numbers as long as he likes the way the film looks.

I just think the whole "sword and sandal epic" needs a break. Don't get me wrong, I personally love them and would watch a hundred of them. But I think the public just doesn't buy into them the way some of us do. I think the reason Gladiator did so good and kicked this off, was because it was different and no one had done it for awhile. Give this genre a break for a couple years, and the first one to come out after the break with be a major success most likely.

I will probably be making another trip to the theater with some friends, and I hope that this movie carries some success over the next few weeks.

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I don't really know how to feel about all this box office hoo-ha, but I do know that Orlando's performance in KOH was well done. I don't know if I agree that just because KOH hasn't been the draw we'd like to see that it will mean disaster for Orlando's first leading role. He's very proud of the project, his work on the project and the opportunity to work with Sir Ridley. That aside, I still think there's been enough positive reviews and feedback of Orlando's performance that this will make a name for him.in a big way and open up more leading role opportunities.

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Sheesh. Gas prices are skyrocketing and the markets are down. Interest rates are rising, people in hi-tech and mid-management jobs are getting laid off right and left. New house start-ups have gone into some sort of depression, at least around here.

Maybe part of the box office slump here in the US is that a lot of us adults (the target for KOH) are feeling a bit s t r e t c h e d in our budgets so many of us wait to hear more buzz to see if a movie is going to be worth the $15 per person (after factoring in gas and the price of popcorn and a soda). The "serious" critics favorable reviews notwithstanding, it's going to take some word of mouth to get a lot of us into the theaters, unless, of course, you're someone like me who was seriously motivated with a very flexible schedule and was able to get into the $4.25 early bird matinee on opening day, after a good breakfast so popcorn and soda wasn't really wanted. :lol:

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Actually a recession means better box office. Fox is trying to put on a good face but they are very disappointed. Basement expectations were $25M and add to that, that the box office was flat on Saturday instead of having a big bump up was seriously disappointing.

Everyone get your butts back to the theater this coming weekend. The only way to salvage this a bit is only to have a drop off of about 30% this weekend instead of the normal 50% to 60%. After that Star Wars is going to steamroll everything in it's path for the next month.

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I think it didn't help that the weather was so nice here in our part of the South, when it's been a rather chilly Spring. Last weekend was nothing but gray and cloudly and ugly around here, and nobody was able to get outside. This weekend however it was positively beautiful, and you could barely find a parking space at any garden store or nursery. It was a weekend meant to be spent outdoors, and from what I could tell from all my friends, they all did.

There was also a college graduation in our area this weekend, a week earlier than it is usually scheduled.

Add in Mother's Day, it too a bit earlier in May than usual, and the attendant festivals and activities, and you've got some other factors that might contribute to the lower turnout.

It is disappointing that the headlines can't be more positive about the box office, but I do believe it's going to remain a strong movie and I certainly don't believe the opening weekend numbers have hurt Orlando's leading man chances.

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